S&P global ratings

ULAANBAATAR — International ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Mongolia’s long-term sovereign credit rating at “BB−” and maintained its outlook at “Stable”. In the assessment released on October 8, the agency cited rising mining exports, increased copper production and fiscal discipline as key factors.

The agency also kept Mongolia’s short-term rating at “B”. The stable outlook reflects expectations that economic growth will remain relatively strong over the next 12 months and that the increase in the government’s net debt will be kept under control.

Mining exports to support economic growth

S&P expects the mining sector to remain the main driver of Mongolia’s economic growth in the coming years. Rising copper production during the second phase of the Oyu Tolgoi project and steady coal exports to China are among the key growth drivers.

According to the agency, output in Mongolia’s mining and quarrying sector rose 31.5% year on year in the first half of 2026. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.7% over the same period.

However, the economy’s heavy reliance on mineral exports continues to leave it vulnerable to commodity-price volatility and disruptions to cross-border trade. As China is Mongolia’s main export market, border-crossing capacity and transport and logistics efficiency have a significant impact on economic performance.

Fiscal position and external risks

Efforts to improve the sovereign debt position and fiscal discipline also contributed to the decision to maintain Mongolia’s rating. S&P projects that government net debt will remain relatively low as a share of GDP over the medium term, helping to limit financing risks.

However, a “Stable” outlook is not a guarantee of future performance. The agency warned that a material slowdown in economic growth, weakened fiscal discipline resulting in persistently higher deficits, or government net debt exceeding 30% of GDP could put downward pressure on the rating.

Conversely, continued mining growth, improved external debt-servicing conditions and fiscal indicators, and greater stability in policymaking could have a positive impact on Mongolia’s sovereign rating.

Energy security and inflation remain additional risks requiring close attention. Mongolia is heavily dependent on Russia for refined petroleum products, leaving fuel supplies vulnerable to disruptions at Russian refineries and in regional transport and logistics. According to S&P, the consumer price index rose 12.5% year on year in August 2026, while the Bank of Mongolia raised its policy rate to 12.5%.

International ratings offer investors different perspectives

Other major international ratings agencies have also maintained their latest assessments of Mongolia. Fitch Ratings kept Mongolia’s rating at “B+” with a “Stable” outlook on August 19, while Moody’s Investors Service affirmed a “B1” rating with a “Stable” outlook on October 5.

Because the agencies use different methodologies, their ratings cannot be directly equated. Taken together, however, they provide international investors and lenders with information about Mongolia’s capacity to meet its debt obligations and the risks surrounding its economic outlook.

For Mongolia, maintaining creditworthiness will continue to depend on sustaining export growth while controlling inflation, diversifying the economy and protecting fiscal discipline. The central challenge is to turn growth in mining output into more sustainable public finances and broader-based economic development.